Oregon Office of Economic Analysis

Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
Agency name	Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
Formed	1977
Jurisdiction	State of Oregon
Headquarters	Salem, Oregon
Chief1 name	Mark McMullen
Chief1 position	State Economist
Parent department	Oregon Department of Administrative Services
Website	https://www.oregon.gov/das/OEA/Pages/index.aspx

Oregon Office of Economic Analysis. The Oregon Office of Economic Analysis is the official state agency responsible for producing economic and revenue forecasts for the State of Oregon. It operates under the Oregon Department of Administrative Services and provides critical data to the Governor of Oregon, the Oregon Legislative Assembly, and state agencies. Its analyses inform budget planning, fiscal policy, and public understanding of the state's economic trajectory.

History and establishment

The office was formally established in 1977 by the Oregon Legislative Assembly to provide independent economic forecasting. Its creation was driven by the need for more accurate and nonpartisan revenue projections following the fiscal volatility of the early 1970s. The agency's role was solidified and its independence emphasized through subsequent legislation, including the landmark Ballot Measure 5 in 1990, which increased demand for precise fiscal impact analysis. Over the decades, it has become a cornerstone of the state's budgetary process, advising administrations from Governor Vic Atiyeh to Governor Tina Kotek.

Mission and responsibilities

The core mission is to produce the official economic and revenue forecasts that form the basis for the state's biennial budget. A primary statutory duty is issuing the quarterly Oregon Economic and Revenue Forecast, which guides allocations from the Oregon General Fund. The office also analyzes the fiscal impacts of proposed ballot measures for the Oregon Secretary of State and conducts long-term studies on issues like Public Employees Retirement System liabilities and demographic trends. It provides technical assistance to the Oregon Legislature's Ways and Means Committee and other state entities.

Key reports and publications

The flagship publication is the quarterly *Oregon Economic and Revenue Forecast*, presented to the Revenue Emergency Board. Other essential documents include the *Oregon Economic Outlook*, a detailed annual report on statewide and regional trends. The office publishes the *Voluntary Compliance Estimate* for the Oregon Department of Revenue and produces fiscal impact statements for all statewide ballot initiatives. Special reports have covered topics such as the economic effects of COVID-19, wildfire impacts, and the outlook for major industries like semiconductor manufacturing in the Willamette Valley.

Organizational structure

The office is a division within the Oregon Department of Administrative Services, the central administrative agency of Oregon state government. It is led by the State Economist, who is appointed by the Director of the Oregon Department of Administrative Services. The small, specialized staff typically includes economists and analysts with expertise in econometrics, public finance, and regional economics. The office works closely with the Legislative Revenue Office and maintains data-sharing agreements with federal agencies like the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

Economic impact and analysis

The office's forecasts directly determine the amount of funds available for public schools, healthcare, and other state services. Its analyses of personal income tax collections, corporate excise tax revenues, and capital gains realizations are pivotal. The office models the impacts of national recessions, federal policy changes from Congress or the Federal Reserve, and shifts in key Oregon sectors like technology, forestry, and agriculture. Its work on migration patterns and housing affordability influences state planning efforts.

Leadership and staff

The office is directed by the State Economist, a position held since 2012 by Dr. Mark McMullen, who previously worked for Global Insight. Notable past State Economists include Tom Potiowsky, who later served as chair of the Portland State University Economics Department. The staff comprises senior economists and analysts who often present findings to committees of the Oregon Legislature and at conferences hosted by organizations like the National Association of State Budget Officers. The leadership maintains a strict norm of nonpartisan analysis to preserve the office's credibility with both Democratic and Republican legislators.

Category:State agencies of Oregon Category:1977 establishments in Oregon