Hwasong-15

Hwasong-15. The Hwasong-15 is a liquid-fueled intercontinental ballistic missile developed and deployed by the Democratic People's Republic of Korea. Its first successful test flight in November 2017 marked a significant milestone in the nuclear weapons program of Kim Jong-un, demonstrating a potential capability to strike targets across the continental United States. The missile's development has been a central focus of international security concerns and diplomatic efforts, including summits between Kim Jong-un and leaders like Donald Trump and Moon Jae-in.

Development and design

The Hwasong-15 was developed by North Korea's defense scientific community, primarily under the auspices of the Second Academy of Natural Sciences and with oversight from the Munitions Industry Department. Its design represents an evolution from earlier systems like the Hwasong-14, featuring a larger first stage and a more powerful liquid-propellant engine, potentially derived from technology sourced from the Soviet Union or acquired through networks like the A. Q. Khan network. Analysts from organizations such as the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies and the Federation of American Scientists note the missile's design incorporates a "shroud" or payload fairing large enough to house a nuclear warhead and possible penetration aids. The development program accelerated rapidly following a series of engine tests observed at the Sohae Satellite Launching Station and other facilities monitored by the International Atomic Energy Agency.

Operational history

The Hwasong-15 was first flight-tested on 28 November 2017, launched from Pyongsong in South Pyongan Province on a lofted trajectory that splashed down in the Sea of Japan within the Exclusive Economic Zone of Japan. This test, ordered by Kim Jong-un and observed by officials like Ri Pyong-chol, achieved an apogee of approximately 4,475 kilometers, leading experts at the Missile Defense Advocacy Alliance to estimate a potential range of over 13,000 kilometers on a standard trajectory. The test prompted an emergency meeting of the United Nations Security Council and was condemned by governments worldwide. Subsequent parades in Kim Il-sung Square, including the October 2020 event celebrating the 75th anniversary of the Workers' Party of Korea, have displayed the missile on its massive transporter erector launcher, but no further flight tests have been conducted as of early 2024, suggesting a possible focus on other systems like the Hwasong-18.

Technical specifications

The Hwasong-15 is a two-stage, liquid-fueled ICBM. Open-source analysis, utilizing imagery from satellites operated by companies like Planet Labs and assessments from the Center for Strategic and International Studies, estimates its length at roughly 21 to 22 meters with a diameter between 2.0 and 2.1 meters. It is propelled by a high-thrust liquid engine, possibly using hypergolic propellants like unsymmetrical dimethylhydrazine and dinitrogen tetroxide. The missile is launched from a wheeled transporter erector launcher, believed to be domestically manufactured but based on designs from the People's Republic of China. Its estimated range of 13,000 kilometers could theoretically place cities like Washington, D.C., New York City, and Los Angeles within reach, though its accuracy and the survivability of its re-entry vehicle against systems like the Ground-Based Midcourse Defense remain subjects of analysis by the U.S. Department of Defense.

Strategic significance

The deployment of the Hwasong-15 fundamentally altered the strategic calculus on the Korean Peninsula and in Northeast Asia. It represents the culmination of a long-term strategy, articulated through speeches at the Supreme People's Assembly, to achieve a credible deterrent against the United States Armed Forces. This capability underpins North Korea's declared status as a "nuclear weapons state," a claim rejected by treaties like the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. The missile's potential range complicates the defense planning of the United States Indo-Pacific Command and its allies, including Japan Self-Defense Forces and the Republic of Korea Armed Forces. It has also been a central bargaining chip in diplomatic engagements, from the 2018–19 Korean peace process to the stalled negotiations in Hanoi and Stockholm.

International reactions

The development and testing of the Hwasong-15 have provoked widespread international condemnation and sanctions. Following its 2017 test, the United Nations Security Council unanimously adopted United Nations Security Council Resolution 2397, imposing stringent new economic sanctions. The European Union, United Kingdom, and Australia imposed autonomous sanctions targeting entities like the Korea Ryonbong General Corporation. Regional powers expressed grave concern; Japan under Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and South Korea under President Moon Jae-in strongly protested the tests. While China and the Russian Federation endorsed UN sanctions, they have concurrently called for a relaxation of pressure to resume dialogue. The administration of Donald Trump adopted a policy of "maximum pressure," leading to the 2018 Singapore Summit, though subsequent talks failed to secure a deal on limiting missiles like the Hwasong-15.

Category:North Korean missiles Category:Intercontinental ballistic missiles