Gallup

Gallup. It is an American analytics and advisory firm, globally renowned for its public opinion polls conducted across more than 160 countries. Founded by pioneer George Gallup, the organization has become synonymous with measuring and understanding human attitudes and behaviors. Its work spans diverse fields including politics, economics, wellbeing, and workplace management, influencing leaders in business and government worldwide.

History

The organization was established in 1935 by George Gallup, a University of Iowa-trained statistician who had previously worked in advertising and journalism. A seminal early success was its accurate prediction of the 1936 United States presidential election, contradicting the widely-read Literary Digest poll and establishing the credibility of scientific sampling methods. Throughout the mid-20th century, it expanded its scope, conducting influential surveys on topics ranging from World War II to civil rights. Under subsequent leadership, including that of his son-in-law George H. Gallup Jr., the firm grew into a global entity, opening offices in London, Beijing, and Mexico City. In 1988, the Gallup family sold the firm to Selection Research, Incorporated, which later became the Gallup Organization.

Gallup Poll

The Gallup Poll is the firm's flagship series of public opinion surveys, most famously tracking presidential job approval ratings since the administration of Franklin D. Roosevelt. These polls are conducted regularly in the United States and internationally, providing a continuous snapshot of public sentiment on pressing issues. Key tracking polls include the Gallup Daily and the long-running Gallup Poll Social Series. The results are widely disseminated through major media partners like CNN, USA Today, and the BBC, making them a staple of political reporting and analysis. The data from these polls forms a critical historical archive for researchers studying trends in American politics and society.

Methodology

Gallup's approach is rooted in probability-based sampling, designed to represent the views of a defined population, such as all U.S. adults. Interviews are primarily conducted via telephone, including both landline and cell phone numbers, with some surveys utilizing online panels. A typical U.S. political poll surveys around 1,000 adults, with a margin of error of approximately ±4 percentage points. The firm employs rigorous weighting techniques to ensure samples align with demographic benchmarks from sources like the U.S. Census Bureau. For its global work, such as the World Poll, it adapts methodologies to cultural contexts, often employing face-to-face interviews in regions with low telephone penetration.

Influence and criticism

Gallup's data has profoundly influenced political strategy, corporate decision-making, and academic research, setting the standard for the polling industry. Its findings are frequently cited by institutions like the White House, the Federal Reserve, and the United Nations. However, the firm has faced significant criticism, particularly after its misestimation of the 2012 United States presidential election and the 2016 United States presidential election, which prompted internal reviews of its likely voter models. Critics, including statisticians like Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight, have questioned its methodological choices during these cycles. More broadly, the entire industry, including Gallup, contends with challenges like declining response rates and public skepticism about accuracy.

Notable findings

Beyond horse-race politics, Gallup has produced landmark research on societal attitudes and behaviors. Its long-term trends documented the shifting American views on issues such as same-sex marriage, marijuana legalization, and climate change. The Gallup World Poll has generated influential indexes, including global measurements of happiness and wellbeing used by the OECD and the World Bank. In the corporate realm, its research on employee engagement, stemming from studies by psychologists like Donald O. Clifton, has shaped management practices globally. Other significant work includes tracking confidence in institutions like the U.S. Supreme Court and measuring economic indicators such as U.S. consumer confidence.

Category:Market research companies Category:Public opinion research companies Category:Companies based in Washington, D.C.