2023 Uxbridge and South Ruislip by-election

2023 Uxbridge and South Ruislip by-election was a parliamentary contest held on 20 July 2023 to elect a new Member of Parliament for the constituency of Uxbridge and South Ruislip. The by-election was triggered by the resignation of the sitting Conservative MP, former Prime Minister Boris Johnson. The election became a significant political event, widely interpreted as a referendum on the London Ultra Low Emission Zone (ULEZ) expansion championed by Labour Mayor of London Sadiq Khan. Despite a strong national swing against the Conservatives, the party narrowly retained the seat.

Background

The by-election was necessitated following the resignation of Boris Johnson from the House of Commons in June 2023. Johnson’s departure was part of the wider Parliamentary Privileges Committee investigation into the Partygate scandal. The constituency, located in the London Borough of Hillingdon, had been represented by Johnson since the 2015 general election. The political climate was heavily influenced by the impending expansion of the Ultra Low Emission Zone across all London boroughs by Mayor of London Sadiq Khan, a policy opposed by many local residents and Conservative campaigners.

Candidates and campaign

The Conservative candidate was local councillor Steve Tuckwell, while the Labour Party selected Camden Council cabinet member Danny Beales. Other notable candidates included Laurence Fox for the Reclaim Party and Green Party activist Sarah Green. The campaign was dominated by local opposition to the ULEZ expansion, with the Conservative campaign focusing almost exclusively on this issue, framing it as an unfair cost levied by the Labour-led Greater London Authority. The Labour campaign, supported by figures like Keir Starmer and Angela Rayner, attempted to balance national messaging on the cost of living crisis and the National Health Service with the contentious local policy.

Result

The result was declared in the early hours of 21 July 2023. Steve Tuckwell of the Conservative Party was elected with 13,965 votes, a majority of 495 over Labour's Danny Beales, who received 13,470 votes. The Reclaim Party candidate Laurence Fox lost his deposit, securing only 714 votes. The swing from the Conservative Party to the Labour Party was 6.85%, significantly less than the national opinion polls at the time and far smaller than the swings seen in the concurrent Selby and Ainsty and Somerton and Frome by-elections held the same day.

Aftermath

The unexpected Conservative hold was immediately cited by some within the party, including Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, as evidence that voters were rejecting costly environmental policies. Labour leader Keir Starmer publicly urged Mayor of London Sadiq Khan to "reflect" on the ULEZ expansion. The result intensified debate within the Labour Party over the political trade-offs between environmental goals and electoral appeal in outer London constituencies. The victory provided a temporary morale boost for Rishi Sunak's government amid a period of poor national polling.

Analysis

Political analysts viewed the result as a highly localised anomaly driven by the ULEZ issue, rather than a revival of national fortunes for the Conservative Party. Commentators noted that the Labour vote share still increased significantly from the 2019 general election, but was insufficient to overcome focused opposition on a single salient policy. The by-election demonstrated the potential for local grievances to override national political trends, a phenomenon also observed in the Chesham and Amersham by-election. The outcome was extensively discussed in media outlets like the BBC, The Guardian, and The Daily Telegraph, with many seeing it as a cautionary tale for Keir Starmer's strategy ahead of the next general election.

Category:2023 elections in the United Kingdom Category:By-elections to the Parliament of the United Kingdom in English constituencies Category:History of the London Borough of Hillingdon Category:July 2023 events in the United Kingdom