2021 Senedd election

2021 Senedd election was held on 6 May 2021 to elect all 60 members of the Senedd, the devolved parliament of Wales. The election coincided with other major votes across the United Kingdom, including the 2021 Scottish Parliament election and numerous 2021 United Kingdom local elections. The result saw Welsh Labour, led by First Minister Mark Drakeford, win a plurality of seats, falling just one short of an outright majority, and subsequently forming a Co-operative agreement with Plaid Cymru.

Background

The election was the first since the Senedd and Elections (Wales) Act 2020 officially changed the institution's name from the National Assembly for Wales to the Senedd Cymru – Welsh Parliament. It was also the first election held after the 2019 UK general election, which saw the Conservative Party under Boris Johnson win a large majority, significantly altering the political dynamics between Welsh and UK administrations. The preceding term was dominated by the COVID-19 pandemic in Wales, with the Welsh Government's public health response under Mark Drakeford becoming a central political issue. The Brexit process, following the 2016 United Kingdom European Union membership referendum, also continued to shape debates over devolved powers and funding through the United Kingdom Internal Market Act 2020.

Campaign

The campaign was heavily influenced by the ongoing management of the COVID-19 pandemic, with Welsh Labour emphasizing its record of cautious public health measures compared to the Westminster government. Plaid Cymru, led by Adam Price, campaigned on a platform of Welsh independence and a stronger post-pandemic recovery, seeking to build on gains made in the 2019 European elections. The Welsh Conservatives, under Andrew R.T. Davies, focused on economic recovery and criticized the Welsh Government's record on the National Health Service and education. Smaller parties, including the Welsh Liberal Democrats led by Jane Dodds and Abolish the Welsh Assembly Party, also contested the election, with the latter advocating for the dissolution of the devolved institution. Key policy battlegrounds included the Welsh economy, the future of the Union, and environmental policies like the proposed M4 relief road.

Results

Welsh Labour won 30 seats, gaining one constituency seat from the Welsh Conservatives in the Vale of Clwyd but falling short of a majority. The Welsh Conservatives achieved their best-ever result in a Senedd election, winning 16 seats, a gain of five, including victories in constituencies like Brecon and Radnorshire. Plaid Cymru won 13 seats, a net gain of one, holding its heartlands in Gwynedd and Carmarthenshire but failing to make major breakthroughs in the South Wales Valleys. The Welsh Liberal Democrats retained their single seat in Brecon and Radnorshire. Turnout was 46.6%, a slight increase from 2016. The regional list results saw the Welsh Conservatives top the poll in three of the five electoral regions: North Wales, Mid and West Wales, and South Wales West.

Aftermath

Following the election, Mark Drakeford was re-nominated as First Minister by the Senedd. With no party holding a majority, Welsh Labour entered into a formal Co-operative agreement with Plaid Cymru in November 2021, covering 46 policy areas including free school meals, S4C funding, and the creation of a national care service. This arrangement stopped short of a full coalition, with Plaid Cymru members not taking positions in the Welsh Government. The sixth Senedd saw the election of Elin Jones of Plaid Cymru as the Llywydd (Presiding Officer). The strengthened position of the Welsh Conservatives established Andrew R.T. Davies as the official Leader of the Opposition.

Analysis

Analysts viewed the result as an endorsement of Welsh Labour's handling of the COVID-19 pandemic, which contrasted with the approach of the UK Government in London. The success of the Welsh Conservatives was attributed to a consolidation of the pro-Union vote and dissatisfaction in some rural areas with Welsh Government policies. Plaid Cymru's modest gains were seen as a disappointment for proponents of Welsh independence, failing to achieve the surge witnessed by the Scottish National Party in the concurrent 2021 Scottish Parliament election. The election solidified a five-party system within the Senedd, with the continued presence of the Welsh Liberal Democrats and the entry of a member from Abolish the Welsh Assembly Party via the regional list in South Wales East. The results set the political landscape for debates on further devolution, fiscal autonomy, and constitutional futures in the subsequent term.

Category:2021 elections in Wales Category:Senedd elections